فصلنامه نظریه های کاربردی اقتصاد
سال نهم شماره 1 (پیاپی 32، بهار 1401)

Trade Agreement between Iran and Eurasian Economic Union can have a handful of economic consequences for Iran;moreover, this research follows to determine Iran's economic interests from the expansion of trade relations with Eurasian Economic Union, in this research, the impacts of decreasing import tariffs of Iran and Eurasian economic union on welfare, trade balance and changes in payments for skilled and unskilled labor based on the model of Dynamic Global Trade Analysis Project (GDyn) and version 10 of its databases were analyzed in a Long-Run horizon during two scenarios (50% decrease and 100% decrease in tariff rates). This study's results indicate that the section " Grains Crops" in terms of the high trade volume and higher tariffs, the section "Processed Food Industry" in terms of the volume of high trade, the "textiles and clothing" sector considering higher tariffs and the "services" sector is also higher than the significant and influential sectors in Iran-Eurasia trade agreement and it is proposed that tariff rate changes are performed with high accuracyin noted sectors

This thesis investigates the impact of government spending shocks on macroeconomic variables in Iran, especially on private consumption in the form of a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, in a closed economy with non-Ricardian households and a relatively rigorous fiscal policy. The model simulation results show that non-Ricardian households are a stimulus to increase total consumption in response to government spending shocks relative to the baseline without non-Ricardian households. The findings also imply that the positive impulse of government spending in Iran does not allow for the dynamic growth of investment. In other words, The effect of spending shock on the investment is negative, while the employment of non-Ricardian household increased as wage increased, but investment declined. also, fiscal policy has a positive effect on production, although the multiplier is lower than one and will decrease over time. Given that the effect of government spending shocks on private consumption spending is positive. The model results do not follow Ricardian Equivalence Theorem, which is in the form of crowding-in

When an internal or external shock occurs, countries with a lack of good governance and economic fragility are more likely to experience economic and social chaos and economic and political instability. Therefore, with increasing uncertainty due to the high fragility of the economy against internal and external shocks, the motivation of economic actors to start and continue business decreases. In other words, due to macroeconomic instability, the costs of starting a business become so high that individuals, firms are reluctant to take advantage of economic opportunities. For this reason, different countries in order to improve macroeconomic stability and reduce successive and unpredictable changes in laws and regulations, political stability of government, strengthening public services and infrastructure and security of property rights are pursuing strategies to improve the the business environment by reducing the economic fragility under the good governance. Therefore, this study intends to investigate the impact of economic fragility through the governance channel on starting new businesses environment with using the Generalized method of moments (GMM) in selected countries during the period 2006-2019. The results show that economic fragility and its components (economic recession and poverty, unbalanced economic development and brain drain and manpower) through the governance index channel have a positive impact on starting new businesses in the countries under study. The results also show that the variables of financial development, government spending on education, total productivity of production factors have a positive impact on starting new businesses

The aim of this study is analyzing fluctuations and uncertainty in the financial market and its effects and outcomes on real variables. To do so, in this study a DSGE model is used in which economic agents are heterogeneous (skilled and un-skilled person) and live for two periods (young and old generations). Moreover, firms are active in a monopolistic competition market with sticky prices. In this structure, financial market uncertainties are analyzed by fluctuations in stock prices, pessimistic of un-skilled agents about risky assets and uncertainty of un-skilled person regarding future of market. The difference of this study from related others is that government debt (from budget deficit) is financed by Islamic treasury bonds (Akhza) and therefore unlike interest rate – based economies, macro variables did not influence by interest rate. Model parameters is estimated using Bayesian approach and quarterly data on 2004 – 2019 period. The results from stochastic simulation shows that by increasing pessimistic degree of un-skilled persons, total consumption of economy and thereby output level will decrease. Moreover, increasing in uncertainty of un-skilled persons about future of stock market leads to increase in total consumption spending, investment spending and inflation rate in economy. Finally, the increase in variance of risky assets prices lead to increase in consumption spending of un-skilled persons but reduction in consumption spending of skilled persons

The successful experiences of developed countries in applying fiscal policies to overcome the financial crisis of 2008 led to the fact that in developing countries considered impact of fiscal policy, also. Fiscal policy instruments (especially government expenditure) should attract the attention of policymakers and economic theorists in order to increase economic growth and exit the recession. The purpose of this study is to estimate of government expenditure Multiplier and to examine the effect of government expenditure shocks on GDP in Iran's economy and comparative comparisons with selected countries. In this regard, used for selected countries, the Panel Vector Auto Regression (PVAR) and Iran's economic Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model and computed the government expenditure Multiplier for each of them (in Iran (1985-2015) and selected countries (2000-2015)). The results show that a government expenditure shock in Iran and selected countries together initially increase of GDP and then a declining trend and moves in long run and the results of expenditure Multiplier confirming this. On the other hand, according to the results of the analysis of variance the high speed of the impact of government expenditure shocks on GDP is clearly visible

Improving the quality of the institutions by attracting investors, will improve growth, development and welfare. However, it is questionable how the improvement of institutional quality in the developing country, which relies on oil resource's revenue, such as Iran, impact on economic growth and welfare. Due to the intergenerational nature of revenues from natural resources, justice dictates that the exploitation of these resources be done in accordance with intergenerational rights. On the other hand, because oil prices are influenced by the other governments policy, oil-rich countries are looking for alternative incomes. One of the justified sources to replace natural resources is tax revenue. The purpose of this article is to analyze the effect of replacing oil revenue with tax revenue, on lifetime welfare in Iran, with an emphasis on the institutions' quality. So the threshold model of oil revenue’s effect on institutions, using the DOLS method over the period 1996:1-2017:1, Estimated. The results show that there is an inverse U-shaped relationship between the share of oil revenue from GDP with all institutions, and the direct relationship between the share of tax revenue from GDP with them. The effect of institutions on lifetime welfare was estimated using OLG Model and SURE method. Some of the institutions had positive, some had negative or no significant effect on lifetime welfare. Scenarios to replace oil with tax revenue show that if reduced oil revenues in the state budget were deposited with the National Development Fund and be replaced by higher wage taxes, lifetime welfare will increase

The main purpose of this article is to evaluate the effects of the Corona virus epidemic on the production of Iranian manufacturing industries. In order to identify corona waves, in the first part, wavelet analysis is used in the daily time period from March 2019 to March 2020, and in the second part, the effect of different wavelengths on 12 automotive, refining and transportation companies and 15 companies. Food, pharmaceutical and insurance, in the monthly period from April 2017 to March 2019 has been analyzed using panel data and EGLS method. In this study, daily to annual corona wavelengths as well as explanatory variables of inflation and monetary index have been used to examine the economic situation of companies during the corona. The results of wavelet analysis and continuous wavelet transform scalogram indicate that the first, second and third corona peaks are the strongest corona waves. Interpretation of the model estimation results shows that between daily to annual corona waves, daily, weekly and quarterly corona waves have a significant negative effect on company sales. The monthly corona wave, meanwhile, shows a positive effect on corporate sales. Based on the results of the model, it was also found that inflation has a positive effect on sales and production of companies and more deposits than facilities has been able to increase the production and sales of companies

The present study is the mechanism of the effect of exchange rate fluctuations and the global financial crisis on the financial stability of the state banking system of the Iranian economy using Griton and Roper model and using Markov switching regime econometric model, from 1984 to 2019 and affected by exchange rate fluctuations and Examines the global financial crisis. According to the results, the rate of economic exposure to the recession period for the period under study inthe present study is 18 periods versus 16 periods of prosperity. Also, based on the probability transfer functions related to the estimation model, if the Iranian economy is in a recession, it is likely to remain in the same position 0.85 and 0.13, it is likely that the Iranian economy will return to the boom situation under other factors. The country's economy will be in a state of prosperity, despite oil price fluctuations and financial crises, it is likely to remain at 0.13 and 0.86 is likely to be in a recession under other factors. Because expectations play a very important role in investment decisions, any political, economic instability, shocks, fluctuations, and currency jumps can have a negative effect on banking stability, increasing long-term investment risk, and distorting price information. And even causes capital flight. In such circumstances, the composition of the investment changes in favor of speculative activities that is instantaneous and productive to the detriment of the investment

Considering the role of monetary policy in this paper, using linear regression model with symmetric and assymmetric fuzzy coefficients to analyze the money demand function in Iran economy for the period of 1396- 1375.We also used the Friedman and Chordiy study (1988 and 1996) to justify the model.The results of the estimation show the superior performance of the linear regression model with symmetric and asymmetric fuzzy coefficients. On this basis, it can be stated that in the estimation of the fuzzy regression model with the coefficients, the function of the money demand function is the same for all degrees of membership from 0.1 to 0.9. There is not even a very slight change in the mode value. Which implies keeping money with speculative and precautionary motives and will have a recession-induced monetary effect on the economy. On the other hand, in this regression, changes in the coefficients of elasticity have not resulted in any changes in the value of the objective function (money demand), which indicates the stability of the demand for money in Iran. Since the time period is considered in this long-term study, In terms of membership, 0.8 and 0.9, the demand for money is the highest and lowest, respectively, expressed in terms of liquidity and uncertainty conditions in the economy. Also, the stability of the coefficients of the explanatory variables of money demand in the linear regression model with symmetric and asymmetric fuzzy coefficients in Iran is somewhat consistent with the theoretical model of Sidrauski (1967). In other words, this monetary theory can justify the conditions of the Iran economy

Tax evasion is considered an important challenge, especially in developing countries. One of the models that can be used to identify the social and behavioral dimensions of tax evasion is the agent-based model. These models are based on simulation techniques that consider a system of agents and their relationships. In this study, this method has been used to study the structure of tax evasion in different occupational groups. The information on the occupational groups has been extracted from the results of the statistics from the expenditure and income plan of the country's households from 2001-to 2019. Three occupational groups of public sector jobs, low-income self-employed jobs, and high-income self-employed jobs have been evaluated. Three scenarios are embedded. In the first scenario (the honesty of all agents) and the second (assumption of tax evasion), the effect of risk aversion on job selection is evaluated. In the third scenario, the decision model for tax evasion is designed, taking into account behavioral factors and social interactions. Evaluation of behavioral parameters of the model shows that in moving from low-risk self-employed to high-risk self-employed, the coefficient of social norms decreases, and the coefficient of tax evasion increases. The results show that with changes in tax rates and fines, tax evasion changes with a very slope. In other words, policies to increase tax rates and penalties in the presence of behavioral factors do not significantly deter individuals from tax evasion